Australia must strengthen its economic and defense capabilities and build closer ties with Indonesia as China’s regional influence grows and the reliability of its traditional alliance with the United States comes under scrutiny, according to Lowy Institute analyst Sam Hogeveen. In his 2026 Boyer Lecture, titled Four Forces: Australia in the New Asia, Hogeveen argues that major changes in the international order are challenging Australia’s foreign policy, national security and political direction. He identifies China’s rise, changes in America’s global role, Indonesia’s growing regional influe

Australia must strengthen its economic and defense capabilities and build closer ties with Indonesia as China’s regional influence grows and the reliability of its traditional alliance with the United States comes under scrutiny, according to Lowy Institute analyst Sam Hogeveen. In his 2026 Boyer Lecture, titled Four Forces: Australia in the New Asia, Hogeveen argues that major changes in the international order are challenging Australia’s foreign policy, national security and political direction. He identifies China’s rise, changes in America’s global role, Indonesia’s growing regional influence and shifts in Western liberal democracy as key forces shaping Australia’s future. China has become central to Australia’s economic interests as its largest trading partner and a major source of goods, students and migration. However, Hogeveen notes that Beijing’s expanding military capabilities and territorial ambitions present strategic challenges for Australia and its allies. He argues that Canberra should not assume Washington will always be willing to bear the costs and risks of defending its partners in Asia. In his view, the changing balance of power reflects long-term developments that will continue beyond the presidency of Donald Trump. Hogeveen also questions whether the AUKUS security partnership, which includes plans for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, adequately reflects uncertainty about America’s future regional commitments. Rather than expecting another country to replace the United States, he advocates greater Australian self-reliance and stronger regional partnerships. Indonesia features prominently in his argument. With a population of approximately 290 million and significant economic potential, the neighboring country is expected to become increasingly influential in regional affairs. Hogeveen suggests that Australia and Indonesia could deepen cooperation around their shared interest in preventing any outside power from dominating the region, despite differences in their political systems and national priorities. He also links Australia’s foreign policy challenges to domestic political changes. The weakening of traditional political parties, declining voter support and growing distrust of political leaders, he argues, have made governments less willing to pursue major economic reforms. According to Hogeveen, Australia needs a more ambitious national agenda focused on building economic strength, improving defense capacity and preparing for a region in which Asian powers play a greater role. His central argument is that Australia must reconsider its assumptions about international alliances and take greater responsibility for its own future as the regional balance of power continues to evolve.

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